Watchin' the Weather

Commenting on the weather is a state pasttime up here in the Frontier. Predicting it is another story. Today, for instance, we are under a Winter Weather Advisory until 4p AKST with up to 8" of snow expected. Looking out of the window at work right now though the clouds are patchy and no precipitation is falling. In fact, while driving a student to her job this morning we saw the sun poking through the clouds.
The image at left shows part of the Global Infrared Mosaic from NASA satellites. The image at right shows NOAA's satellite for the Alaska Region. The weather felt in Alaska - and eventually the L48 - is generated near the Equator off of the Indonesian Archipelago (bottom left of the first image). To predict weather in the L48 climatologists examine Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) near Indonesia. Warm SSTs usually cause active weather tracks that generate storms. Cooler SSTs create milder conditions. Often, climatologists are unable to accurately predict the long range forecast for Alaska due to several confounding variables such as sea currents and Arctic winds. Looking at the global mosaic (image at left), the North Pacific is experiencing an active storm track this month. As a result, places in Alaska like Juneau are getting slammed with round after round of heavy snowfall. In fact, Juneau has dug itself out of at least two major avalanches this winter already. These snowslides have left people without power for days at a time. In Kodiak, however, warmer winter weather has melted the snow that's hit the island. Today it's about 36 degrees and the 3-4" of snow that blanket the island's lower elevations in danger of melting away.